OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT
Process Conformance Risks
Processes are designed to convert resources to meet objectives. Employee procedures, production processes, supply chain linkages, stakeholders' communication, and customer deliveries can contain inefficiencies that increase costs. These are performance risks that can affect competitiveness.
SCRP can help find out what the expected performance level should be, given existing resources using stochastic techniques. This will help you understand your processes better from risk perspectives. It will help you set reasonable expectations and make better decisions.
Cyclical Events Risks
In an organization, certain events recur on a cyclical basis and they pose some uncertainties to resource planning and operational readiness. Estimating when they are likely to occur and how frequent will better prepare organizations to tackle them. Examples of these recurrences include timing of customer calls, queue build-up at hubs, changes in employee behaviours, amount of bacterias in a liquid, number of jumps in the stock price over a period of time or even rare events like accidents, and breakdowns.
SCRP can assist by developing statistical models to help you better understand these phenomenons within your organization.
All events have causes and consequences. The manifestation of an external or internal event may have an impact on an organization's objectives. This happens when some degree of covariance exists between the event and key processes of the organization. Mapping the probability tree based on prior knowledge can help predict future events and their impact chain. This helps prioritize intervention efforts on specific sections of the tree and chain to lessen a negative impact or to sway it to become positive. SCRP can help you analyse causality risks.
Spending & Investment Risks
Large procurement and investment intents require cost-benefit or ROI analysis that may multiple factors. In business or in government, most of these factors are computed based on point estimates that are highly unrealistic. They often result in wrong decisions. SCRP uses more realistic ranges and distributions based on high confidence levels to simulate tens of thousands of possible outcomes to determine where their probability spread lies. This gives leaders a more scientific-based decision approach and ability to maintain their professional diligence.
Big decisions can be made simple when the expected outcomes or stakes are adequately measured. For example, $1 million can sound expensive. However, if $1 million spending rakes in a minimum of RM25 million profit, then it is unrealistically low and warrants re-evaluation. SCRP can help you make better decisions by valuing your stakes/payoff. For example, costs of not stocking up enough fuel for the fleet, increase in GDP from a project, costs of lung-diseases treatments from a transboundary haze, changes in the value of trade from regulations to help you determine if spending meets your expected rate of return.