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Transition Scenario Modelling

From Forecasts to Foresight—With Feedback Built In.

What This Service Covers

This service translates long-term climate and macroeconomic scenarios into quantified foresight. Using NGFS, IEA, and IPCC SSP narratives, we map how external transitions may impact your internal risk landscape through probabilistic causality chains. We build transition matrices for selected timepoints—typically Year 5 and Year 25—and calibrate these using Bayesian updates once Year 1 actuals are in. The system is designed to learn, adapt, and compress 25-year risk trajectories into 3–5 year decision windows.

Why It Matters

Strategic risk no longer sits comfortably in 2050. Net Zero commitments, regulatory shifts, and capital market pressures demand measurable responses today. Yet most scenario planning remains qualitative or static. IFRS S2 requires climate-related scenario analysis that links forward-looking risks to financial impact. Boards need decision-relevant foresight—not just storytelling—with feedback loops to correct bias. This service delivers just that: a living model that aligns action with uncertainty, and today’s decisions with tomorrow’s outcomes.

Who This Is For

  • PLCs responding to IFRS S2 climate scenario requirements

  • Companies developing Net Zero transition strategies

  • CXOs seeking forward risk visibility

  • Strategy teams needing quantified scenario inputs

  • Sustainability and climate risk professionals preparing for assurance

Key Outcomes You Can Expect

  • Causal scenario maps tied to sector-specific risk pathways

  • Year 5 and Year 25 transition matrices linked to Year 1 forecasts

  • Bayesian calibration engine to correct and update forecasts as data emerges

  • Quantitative scenario engine with embedded timeline compression

  • Clear alignment with ISSB’s forward-looking disclosure expectations

What We Deliver

  1. Scenario Causality Chains (Based on NGFS, IEA, IPCC)

  2. Transition Probability Matrices (Y1→Y5→Y25)

  3. Year 1 Actuals vs Estimate Delta Analysis

  4. Bayesian Calibration Algorithm (Custom to Scenario Assumptions)

  5. Time-Compressed Risk View (3–5 year actionable window)

  6. ISSB Scenario Compliance Note (Clause-Mapped)

  7. Executive Decision Brief (Foresight, Gaps, Interventions)

How We Work

This engagement runs over 6–10 weeks, depending on scenario complexity:

  • Begin with material scenario mapping using reference pathways (NGFS, IEA, IPCC SSP)

  • Translate scenarios into causality chains across operational and financial outcomes

  • Build Markov-based transition forecasts from Year 1 to Year 5 and 25

  • Integrate Year 1 actuals once available and run Bayesian corrections

  • Output scenario visualizations, risk-adjusted forecasts, and timeline-compressed views


Engagement is highly collaborative, with structured input sessions involving your strategy, sustainability, finance, and risk teams.

Ready to Engage? Here's What Helps

If you already have a Net Zero pledge, an ISSB reporting roadmap, or prior scenario work—we can build from there. Share what Year 1 looks like today, and we’ll show how to stretch that insight across the future.

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