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Gain & Loss Simulation

Quantify what risk really costs—fast and defensibly.

What This Service Covers

This service helps you translate expert judgment into quantified financial outcomes using causal chains and rapid simulations. We model how external events trigger operational impacts and financial results, then simulate expected losses or gains using minimum-viable models. No heavy data requirements—just fast, credible quantification aligned with risk governance.


Why It Matters

Risk registers with heatmaps don’t help boards understand financial exposure. Most risks cascade through a chain of causes—yet traditional ERM fails to quantify this. Gain/loss simulations answer the critical question: “What is the chance we lose more than $Y?”—essential for capital allocation, insurance, resilience planning, and board accountability. If you can’t simulate risk impact, you can’t govern it.

Who This Is For

  • CROs, CEOs, CCOs and Board responsible for enterprise or project-level risk evaluation

  • Risk and Strategy teams preparing for capital budgeting or stress testing

  • Public-listed companies complying with ISSB S1/S2 financial linkages

  • Internal Audit, Investment Committees, and Board Risk Committees

  • Sector regulators, insurance-led reviews, or due diligence teams

Key Outcomes You Can Expect

  • Simulated loss exceedance curves with scenario-specific probabilities

  • Quantified risk models from expert inputs, validated through simulation

  • Causal linkage between external events and financial outcomes

  • Dashboard-ready metrics for board review or investor communication

  • Clear audit trail from judgment ranges to risk distribution

What We Deliver

  1. Minimum-Viable Risk Simulation Model

  2. Expert Judgment Capture Framework (Stack 2)

  3. Event Causality Map (Trigger → Function → Outcome)

  4. Loss/Gain Simulation Pack with 10,000+ iteration outputs

  5. Visual Loss Exceedance Curves for each critical scenario

  6. Board Summary Slide Deck: Risks, Scenarios, Simulated Exposure

  7. Optional: Monte Carlo Engine Integration into your workflow

How We Work

Delivered in three agile phases over 4–5 weeks:

  • Causality Mapping: Define a 3–5 step chain linking external events to financial impact

  • Expert Judgment Ranging: Elicit and structure input ranges for each link (Track 2)

  • Simulation & Visualization: Run simulations, generate exceedance curves, and create board-ready outputs


All simulations follow sound probabilistic principles and align with ISSB's emphasis on material risk-financial linkages. We work closely with your internal teams to ensure estimates reflect both strategy and reality.

Ready to Engage? Here's What Helps

If you’ve identified key risks or triggers but haven’t quantified their impact—let’s begin with a draft causality chain or an existing risk matrix. Sign an NDA, share any prior analysis, and we’ll help structure, simulate, and visualize your loss scenarios—fast.

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